Conventional mortgage rates
Updated daily from rates borrowers actually locked. Investor DSCR loans price off lender rate cards rather than these surveys — see DSCR rates.
30-year fixed
7.25%
Oct 22, 2026 — latest available; today’s has not posted yet
15-year fixed
6.56%
Oct 22, 2026 — latest available; today’s has not posted yet
What sets this rate
Each rate is built on the one below it, and the gaps between them are where your rate actually comes from.
- Fed funds10-yr TreasuryLoose link1.08%
The Fed sets overnight money. The ten-year is what the bond market thinks short rates will average over the next decade, plus a premium for tying money up that long — so a cut today only moves it if it changes that expectation. Often it does not: the gap is 1.08% now against a five-year norm of 0.06%, which is the Fed cutting while the long end stayed put.
- 10-yr Treasury30-yr mortgageTight link2.29%
Almost no 30-year mortgage lasts 30 years — people sell or refinance — so it behaves like a ten-year bond and is priced off one. The 2.29% on top is the lender’s margin and what investors charge for the risk you repay early. When the ten-year moves, this moves with it, within days.
So: a Fed cut does not lower a mortgage rate on its own — it has to travel through the ten-year first, and often does not. If you are watching one number to guess where rates go next, watch the ten-year Treasury, not the Fed.
DSCR (rental) rates
A DSCR loan qualifies on the property’s rent rather than your income. There is no public survey for these, so this is a market index, quoted against the five-year Treasury — not against the 30-year above, which measures owner-occupied purchases and cannot represent an investor loan.
DSCR 30-year fixed
7.699%
2026-10-16 · updated daily
Over the 5-yr Treasury
+292 bps
5-yr 4.78% on 2026-10-22
Over conforming
+45 bps
context only, not the anchor
What the DSCR ratio itself is worth
- 1.005x7.125%
- 1.25x7.000%
- 1.56x7.000%same price as the row above — one pricing bucket
From one lender’s published card, which prices DSCR in three brackets — under 1.00, 1.00 to 1.15, and 1.15 and up — not on a sliding scale. So there is nothing to interpolate between 1.25x and 1.56x, and improving a ratio that already clears 1.15 buys nothing on rate. These levels sit below the index because they are a starting rate, not a quote.
Where these numbers come from
The rate
452 daily observations, latest 2026-10-16. It is a market index of what borrowers are quoted; the publisher does not state the scenario behind it, so read it as a level, not as your rate.
The anchor
Five-year Treasury constant maturity. DSCR loans carry five-year prepayment penalties and are underwritten to that horizon, so the five-year is the matching instrument. It is also the only anchor whose spread never turns negative — wholesale DSCR par has printed below the conforming 30-year on the same day, which makes conforming unusable as a benchmark here.
Other published readings
- 7.000% — Investor Property Loan, published card (2026-10-15). 70 bps below the index — a published starting rate rather than a quote, and below conforming, so not a rate anyone is offered.
The ladder’s assumptions
Purchase, single-family rental, $400,000, 75% LTV, 760 FICO, 5-year prepayment penalty, 30-year fixed. Change any one and the rate changes. Rate only — it excludes origination, which that lender publishes separately as the greater of 1.5% or $3,000.
Educational only. Not an offer of credit, and not available to everyone.
Where rates are headed
The market and the Fed both expect short rates higher.
Treasury bills are priced about 56 bps higher than today’s funds rate a year out. On that pricing, waiting for a better rate is a bet against the market.
Treasury bill yields against today’s funds rate, 2026-10-23. The gap is what the market is paying for future short rates.
Next Fed decision
Wednesday, October 28in 3 days, 2:00 p.m. ET
October 27–28 meeting, press conference to follow. No updated projections at this one.
Target range
3.75–4.00%
Trading at 3.88%
See all five loan programsjumbo, FHA, VA
The same day, priced five ways. Nothing about the borrower changed — only which box the loan fits in.
| Program | Rate | Prior day |
|---|---|---|
| 30-year fixedConforming, owner-occupied | 7.25% | −5 bps |
| 15-year fixedConforming, owner-occupied | 6.56% | unchanged |
| 30-year jumboAbove the conforming loan limit | 7.50% | −11 bps |
| 30-year FHABefore mortgage insurance premiums | 7.01% | −10 bps |
| 30-year VABefore the funding fee | 6.92% | −4 bps |
As of Oct 22, 2026.
What the Fed itself projectsthe dot plot
Four times a year every FOMC participant writes down where they think the funds rate ends each of the next few years. The dot is the median; the bar is the full spread of the committee.
From the projections released Sep 16, 2026; next update Dec 9, 2026. Projections, not promises — participants revise them every round.
Fed meeting calendarnext in 3 days
- Oct 28, 20263 days away
- Dec 9, 202645 days awayprojections
Federal Reserve calendar. Decisions land at 2:00 p.m. ET on the closing day.
The number you heard on the newsFreddie Mac weekly survey
Headlines quote Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, published Thursday from lender quotes collected over the prior few days. It moves slower than the market. Both numbers are correct — they measure different things.
What sits underneathTreasury, SOFR, prime
A lender starts from one of these and adds a spread for the risk they think your deal carries. When rates move, this is usually what moved.
10-year Treasury
The benchmark most fixed-rate mortgage pricing tracks
4.96%
SOFR
The index under most floating-rate bridge and construction debt
3.90%
Prime rate
Bank reference rate, common on small-balance commercial loans
7.00%
Fed funds (effective)
What overnight money actually trades at — the floor under every other rate here
3.88%
What these numbers are — and are notread before you rely on one
- Averages, not offers. Nobody owes you these rates. They assume a well-qualified borrower.
- Residential, not commercial. A DSCR rental, flip, bridge or construction loan prices off different money and lands higher — often well higher. Treat the 30-year as a floor to measure distance from.
- Rate is not price. Two loans at the same rate can differ by tens of thousands once fees, prepayment terms and how interest accrues are on the table.
- A day behind. Lock data posts the next business day. The Treasury curve above is the fresher tell.
- The outlook is short rates. The curve and the dots describe Fed policy, which drives floating-rate debt directly and fixed mortgage rates only loosely. Mortgages track the 10-year, and the spread over it moves on its own.
Where this data comes fromsources and method
Sources
This record was compiled from the public pages below. Figures reflect what each source published when it was retrieved and are not a quote — confirm current terms with the lender.
- 30-year fixed — Optimal Blue OBMMI — retrieved 2026-10-25
- 15-year fixed — Optimal Blue OBMMI — retrieved 2026-10-25
- 30-year jumbo — Optimal Blue OBMMI — retrieved 2026-10-25
- 30-year FHA — Optimal Blue OBMMI — retrieved 2026-10-25
- 30-year VA — Optimal Blue OBMMI — retrieved 2026-10-25
- 30-year fixed — Freddie Mac PMMS — retrieved 2026-10-25
- 15-year fixed — Freddie Mac PMMS — retrieved 2026-10-25
- 10-year Treasury — US Treasury — retrieved 2026-10-25
- SOFR — New York Fed — retrieved 2026-10-25
- Prime rate — Federal Reserve H.15 — retrieved 2026-10-25
- Fed funds (effective) — New York Fed — retrieved 2026-10-25
- US Treasury daily par yield curve — retrieved 2026-10-25
- Federal Reserve FOMC calendar and projections — retrieved 2026-10-25
No cut-or-hold odds. Those come from CME’s fed funds futures, which require a licence CME does not give away. Rather than substitute a rougher number and let it pass for the real one, this page shows what the Treasury curve prices and what the Fed projects, and labels each.
Checked automatically every day, and again hourly while anyone is reading. Last checked — which is not the date on each rate above. That one is when the source last published, and markets do not publish at weekends. Information only — not a rate lock, an offer, or advice on your loan.
Rate trigger — get alerted when rates drop below your target
Name the rate you are waiting for and you get an email the day the market crosses it. Or take the daily update instead, or both. Investment property only.